Future of iPad?

Very bright, if you believe iSuppli analyst Rhoda Alexander.

The iPad will account for an overwhelming 74.1 percent of global tablet shipments in 2010, with the remaining 25.9 percent consisting of a mix of older PC-type tablet products and competitive slates. Despite the arrival of the first real iPad competitors in 2011, Apple still will maintain a prevailing 70.4 percent share of shipments, iPad research from iSuppli bears out.  Even in 2012, the iPad will continue to control nearly two-thirds of shipments, at 61.7 percent, as the competition strives to develop ecosystems of tablet apps and content that can match up with those of Apple.

The most likely competitor to the iPad will be HP’s ‘PalmPad’, running on webOS. However, it would not be available until sometime in 2011. Also, Google has to make its ChromeOS ‘touch-enabled’, which it is not at present.

In, addition, “Competitors face some serious obstacles in their efforts to match the total iPad package, most notably competing with the growing suite of iPad-specific applications,” Alexander said.

This challenges the assessment of Acer’s Chairman JT Wang that the iPad’s market share will drop to about 20 percent, maybe less, in the near future.

I tend to believe Ms. Alexander. Matt Burns gives a reasoned analysis at the CrunchGear blog: “Did the iPad prëmptively kill the US tablet market like the Kindle and Nook killed other ebook readers?

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